Stocks Climb on Possible US-China Trade Talks and a Resilient US Labor Market
By: barchartnews|2025/05/02 22:30:02
0
Share
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.07%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.15%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are up +0.99%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are up +1.09%. Stock indexes today are trading higher, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials posting 1-month highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 5-week high. Stocks are climbing today on a possible thaw in the US-China trade stalemate. China’s Commerce Ministry is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. Today, it said, “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start trade talks with China, and we are currently evaluating this.” Stocks added to their gains on signs the US labor market remains resilient with slack wage pressures after Apr nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected and Apr average hourly earnings rose less than expected.US Apr nonfarm payrolls rose +177,000, stronger than expectations of +138,000, although Mar nonfarm payrolls were revised lower by 43,000 jobs to +185,000 from the previously reported +228,000. The Apr unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, right in line with expectations.US Apr average hourly earnings rose +0.2% m/m and +3.8% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y.The weakness in some megacap technology stocks is limiting the upside in the overall market. Apple is down more than -4% after it reported falling China sales and warned that tariffs will increase costs. Also, Amazon.com is down more than -1% after it gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for operating income and said it is bracing for a tougher business climate. The markets are discounting the chances at 3% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting.Q1 earnings reporting season is in full swing. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, the market consensus is for Q1 year-over-year earnings growth of +6.7% for the S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of +11.1% in early November. So far, of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, 78% have beaten estimates. Full-year 2025 corporate profits for the S&P 500 are seen rising +9.4%, down from the forecast of +12.5% in early January. Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 1-month high and is up +2.08%. China’s Shanghai Composite was closed for the Labor Day holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 5-week high and closed up +1.04%.Interest RatesJune 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are down -16 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +6.9 bp to 4.287%. June T-notes today are under pressure from a larger-than-expected increase in US Apr nonfarm payrolls. Also, a possible thaw in the US-China trade war has curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes after China’s Commerce Ministry said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. Today’s stock rally has also reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.Losses in T-notes are contained due to benign US wage pressures after Apr average hourly earnings rose less than expected. T-notes also have carryover support from today’s rally in 10-year UK gilts to a 3-1/2 week high. European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +5.0 bp to 2.494%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3-1/2 week low of 4.408% and is down -1.8 bp to 4.463%.The Eurozone Apr core CPI was revised upward to 2.7% y/y from the previously reported 2.4% y/y.The Eurozone Apr S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 49.0 from the previously reported 48.7.The Eurozone Mar unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low 6.2%.Swaps are discounting the chances at 97% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting.US Stock MoversChip stocks are rallying today and are giving the broader market a boost. Lam Research (LRCX) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +4%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductor (ON), KLA Corp (KLAC), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +3%.Travel stocks are moving higher today on signs of economic strength after US Apr nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected. Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +4%. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +3%.Dexcom (DXCM) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.04 billion, better than the consensus of $1.02 billion. Exact Sciences (EXAS) is up more than +10% after reporting Q1 revenue of $706.8 million, better than the consensus of $688.7 million, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $3.07 billion-$3.12 billion from a previous estimate of $3.03 billion-$3.09 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.06 billion. Duolingo (DUOL) is up more than +12% after boosting its full-year bookings estimate to $1.12 billion- $1.13 billion from a previous estimate of $1.08 billion-$1.10 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.09 billion. US-listed Chinese stocks are climbing after China’s Commerce Ministry is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. As a result, PDD Holdings (PDD), JD.com (JD), Baidu (BIDU), and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) are up more than +2%. Apple (AAPL) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 greater China revenue of $16.00 billion, weaker than the consensus of $16.83 billion. Amazon.com (AMZN) is down more than -1% after forecasting Q2 operating income of $13.0 billion to $17.5 billion, weaker than the consensus of $17.82 billion. Block (XYZ) is down more than -23% after reporting Q1 net revenue of $5.77 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.22 billion, and cut its full-year adjusted operating income estimate to $1.9 billion from a previous estimate of $2.1 billion, below the consensus of $2.12 billion. Motorola Solutions (MSI) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.32-$3.37, weaker than the consensus of $3.47.Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after announcing a delay in releasing the Grand Theft Auto VI game. Atlassian (TEAM) is down more than -7% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $1.35 billion to $1.36 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.36 billion. Airbnb (ABNB) is down more than -2% after forecasting Q2 revenue of $2.99 billion to $3.05 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $3.03 billion.Earnings Reports (5/2/2025)AES Corp/The (AES), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE), Chevron Corp (CVX), Cigna Group/The (CI), DaVita Inc (DVA), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), Eaton Corp PLC (ETN), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Franklin Resources Inc (BEN), Monster Beverage Corp (MNST), T Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
You may also like

The other side of Musk's trillion-dollar fortune: 85% cannot be sold
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem, and the answer is not on the pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up period ends.

The U.S. government prohibits foreigners from using Fable 5, Anthropic issues a rebuttal
The sudden removal of the two models has caused widespread shock in the tech industry and the AI community.

Citibank releases "2030 Asset Tokenization Market Outlook": 6 major trends may create a $8.2 trillion market
The tokenization of financial assets is moving from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, but this is a gradual evolution rather than a fierce revolution.

The trillion-dollar valuation test: Are the three major super IPOs a celebration for tech stocks or a nightmare for the crypto market?
Tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI have sparked a $35 trillion super IPO wave. The "suction effect" is not enough to crash the stock and crypto markets, but the test of high valuations is just beginning.

Morning Report | Digital Asset completes $355 million financing led by a16z Crypto; Meta completes operational separation from Manus
Overview of Important Market Events on June 11

a16z Crypto Partner: Cash flow is the moat
Most companies spend years creating network effects on traditional infrastructure. Crypto founders inherit them as starting conditions.

Cryptocurrency market makers collectively seek change as it becomes increasingly difficult to make money
There is more and more to do.

How TradeXYZ, xStocks, and Alpaca break down the SpaceX IPO into three different strategies
The value of tokenized products ultimately depends on whether the underlying structure is sound, rather than just the price displayed on the interface.

$75 billion in risk asset redistribution: How will SpaceX's IPO affect U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?
The SpaceX IPO is short-term "capital competition" for the cryptocurrency market, while in the medium to long term, it leans towards "narrative endorsement" for Bitcoin.

Why Is BlackRock Investing $5 Billion in the SpaceX IPO?
What is driving the massive demand for the SpaceX IPO, and why did BlackRock place a $5 billion order? Learn how the historic listing could impact SpaceX stock, Bitcoin, SPCX, and crypto markets.

Morning News | CME Group launches Nasdaq Cryptocurrency Index futures; Asset management giant Janus Henderson strategically invests in Ethena
Overview of Important Market Events on June 10

Bitcoin Layer 2 Network Botanix: Why Did We Choose to Dissolve?
The Bitcoin L2 star project Botanix announced a gradual shutdown, with the team admitting to facing severe challenges from the failure of its business model and the prevailing trends. Users are urged to withdraw all assets before July 9, 2026.

Why did Oracle deliver the strongest financial report in history, yet its stock price fell?
Oracle's revenue for fiscal year 2026 set a record, with AI cloud orders soaring to $638 billion, but massive capital expenditures on computing power led to negative free cash flow, causing a 5% drop in after-hours stock prices.

When the P2P illicit funds from ten years ago turned into 60,000 bitcoins
The largest Bitcoin money laundering case in the UK has new developments: 16,000 Chinese victims are pursuing 61,000 seized Bitcoins across borders, and the dispute over the applicability of UK and Chinese laws will directly determine whether the victims can share in the soaring profits.

Dialogue with OmenX Founder: Why does the prediction market need an evolution from "spot" to "derivatives"?
How to reconstruct the prediction market using leverage?

Galaxy in-depth report: Is Solana still worth paying attention to?
Solana did not fall behind during the bear market. Trading enthusiasm has waned, but the network is more stable, RWA and stablecoins are expanding, and the capital foundation is much thicker than in the previous cycle. The real question is: when the speculative tide recedes, can perpetuals, predicti...

Young people in South Korea make a "final effort" in the epic bull market
The South Koreans' average of two accounts for wildly gambling in the chip bull market reflects the survival anxiety and harsh reality of countless young people trying to break through class barriers behind the nationwide stock trading frenzy for wealth.

The pricing controversy of Trade.xyz exposes the fatal weakness of Pre-IPO perpetual contracts
SpaceX's equity update has sparked controversy over on-chain liquidations. Trade.xyz refuses to reset the SPCX pricing, and the lack of a Rebase mechanism in Perp DEX has led to a significant trust test for on-chain Pre-IPO assets.
The other side of Musk's trillion-dollar fortune: 85% cannot be sold
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem, and the answer is not on the pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up period ends.
The U.S. government prohibits foreigners from using Fable 5, Anthropic issues a rebuttal
The sudden removal of the two models has caused widespread shock in the tech industry and the AI community.
Citibank releases "2030 Asset Tokenization Market Outlook": 6 major trends may create a $8.2 trillion market
The tokenization of financial assets is moving from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, but this is a gradual evolution rather than a fierce revolution.
The trillion-dollar valuation test: Are the three major super IPOs a celebration for tech stocks or a nightmare for the crypto market?
Tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI have sparked a $35 trillion super IPO wave. The "suction effect" is not enough to crash the stock and crypto markets, but the test of high valuations is just beginning.
Morning Report | Digital Asset completes $355 million financing led by a16z Crypto; Meta completes operational separation from Manus
Overview of Important Market Events on June 11
a16z Crypto Partner: Cash flow is the moat
Most companies spend years creating network effects on traditional infrastructure. Crypto founders inherit them as starting conditions.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com

