On-chain Data Academy (Part 8): A Brand New Set of Ark-Involved Research on BTC's Magical Pricing Methodology (III)
![EverRise [old]](https://s2.coinmarketcap.com/static/img/coins/64x64/10548.png)
Original Article Title: "On-chain Data School (Eight): A Brand-New, #Ark-Involved, $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (III)"
Original Article Author: Mr. Berg, On-chain Data Analyst
TLDR
- The Cointime Price series consists of three articles, and this is the third article
- It is recommended to read at least the first article first
- This article will introduce another way to observe tops using Cointime Price
- This article will also introduce the author's designed Distribution Rate Observation Indicator
1. Brief Review of Previous Two Articles
In the Cointime Price series of articles, the first article introduced the basic principles of Cointime Price and provided an application for buying the dip; "On-chain Data School (Six): A Brand-New, Ark-Involved, BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (I)"
The second article analyzed from the perspective of "the extent to which the price deviates from Cointime Price," shared the author's designed Cointime Price Deviation model, and used this model as a signal filter for tops observation. "On-chain Data School (Seven): A Brand-New, Ark-Involved, $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (II)"
If you are reading this series of articles for the first time, it is recommended to at least read the first article first, otherwise the subsequent understanding may be a bit stuck
2. Escape Top Application Methodology: Cointime Price Daily Distribution Rate
1. The Law of Cointime Price
Before we continue, let's take a look at the chart of Cointime Price:
Attentive readers should have already noticed that the price trend of Cointime Price actually has a very distinct feature: "Sharp Rise — Plateau — Sharp Rise — Plateau..."
Based on the content of the first article in the series, we know that:
Cointime Price only experiences rapid increases when there is a large distribution by long-term holders, and Cointime Price essentially represents the "market chip time-weighted average cost." During the distribution phase, the remaining holders on the field accepting the distribution cause the holding cost to rise, which is reflected in the chart as a rapid increase in Cointime Price.
Utilizing this characteristic, the author has designed an indicator to observe the distribution rate, tentatively named the "Cointime Price Daily Distribution Rate."
2. Cointime Price Daily Distribution Rate Indicator
To measure the rate of change, the author has used the simplest formula: (Today's CP - Yesterday's CP) / Today's CP, then the calculated result is smoothed by a moving average (*Note: CP is an abbreviation for Cointime Price).
After inputting this formula into glassnode, the following chart can be obtained:
We can see that every occurrence of the bull market's main uptrend is accompanied by a high distribution rate of Cointime Price. Except for one high distribution rate that occurred in 2019 near the bottom, every other time a high distribution rate appears, it is usually a signal of accelerated distribution by long-term holders. As for that one time in 2019, it won't lead to misjudgment in practical operations because just looking at the price trend at that time could tell that it was unlikely to be the top.
3. Historical Top Distribution Rate Situation & Current Market Phase
By common sense, every time #BTC reaches a cyclical top, there usually won't be just one "distribution." This is evident from indicators like UPDR, Realized Profit, and so on, and it logically holds true because distribution is a process, not a one-time event.
Readers can click on the above chart (Chart Three), and during the formation of the top, the daily distribution rate often shows more than one clear increase. In this current bull market cycle, the daily distribution rate experienced an acceleration in March of this year, which is also corroborated by Realized Profit data, indicating that indeed some long-term holders chose to take profits at that time.
If you are not yet familiar with what Realized Profit is, you can refer to this post: "On-chain Data School (Part 3): Have the Accumulators at the Bottom Cashed Out?"
March of this year was the first time in this cycle when the distribution rate significantly increased, and during the November rally after Trump's election, there was a second increase in the distribution rate.
This also corresponds to the Realized Profit data quoted by the author in the second top-selling weekly report: "On-chain Data School (Part 2): The Hodlers Who Keep Making Money, What is the Cost of Their BTC?"
From an on-chain data perspective, this is a warning signal worth continued attention.
III. Conclusion
This article is the third piece in the Cointime Price series, and for now, this series comes to a close. I hope it is helpful to everyone, and I also hope that readers can provide as much feedback and comments as possible. If you have any ideas, feel free to comment below and communicate with me! If you are not a glassnode user, you can also track the market trends in real-time by reading my weekly reports that I publish every week.
You may also like
Meet the new WEEX trial fund—your gateway to greater profits
WEEX Labs Lands at Dutch Blockchain Week: A Disruptive Crypto × AI Conversation Sets Sail in Amsterdam
SK Hynix Reportedly Plans U.S. ADR Listing as Early as August, With SEC Approval Possible in Late June
SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI
Deconstructing Anthropic: The Best AI Company, Possibly Also a Type of Organizational Invention
Apollo and Blackstone Reportedly Back $35 Billion Anthropic Chip Financing as Deal Details Remain Unclear
On June 9, according to currently available news alerts, Apollo and Blackstone Group participated in a $35 billion financing for an Anthropic “chip project.” Based on the original wording of the report, the funding has already been raised, but public information remains limited. The financing structure, use of proceeds, project entity, and whether Apollo and Blackstone participated through equity, debt, or project financing have not yet been disclosed.
Humanity Protocol Security Incident Escalates: More Than $31 Million Stolen From Related Addresses as Attacker Continues Selling H for ETH
On June 9, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, more than $31 million has been stolen from addresses linked to Humanity Protocol, and the attack is still ongoing, with the hacker continuously swapping H tokens for ETH. Project founder Terence Kwok later confirmed the security incident on X, saying the issue involved a private key leak.
Bloomberg: As Bitcoin Weakens, Stablecoins and RWA Continue to Drive Expansion in Crypto Businesses
In June, Bloomberg reported that despite Bitcoin falling below $60,000 last week, wiping out about $235 billion in market value within seven days, and dropping close to 50% from last year’s peak, some core businesses in the crypto industry are still expanding, mainly in stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), payments, and infrastructure. The report also noted that overall altcoin activity has contracted significantly: altcoin market capitalization has fallen from a peak of about $431 billion in November 2021 to around $170 billion, and among the tens of millions of tokens issued in recent years, fewer than 1,700 still maintain meaningful trading activity.
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
Binance Research: RWA Market Expected to Expand Nearly 6x from Early 2025, with Public Equities and Onchain Payments Heating Up Together
In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.
Japan to Assess a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Crypto ETFs as Asia’s Compliant Payments Narrative Heats Up
Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."
Meet the new WEEX trial fund—your gateway to greater profits
WEEX Labs Lands at Dutch Blockchain Week: A Disruptive Crypto × AI Conversation Sets Sail in Amsterdam
SK Hynix Reportedly Plans U.S. ADR Listing as Early as August, With SEC Approval Possible in Late June
SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI
