Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off
By: cryptosheadlines|2025/05/02 22:30:02
0
Share
Airdrop Is Live CaryptosHeadlines Media Has Launched Its Native Token CHT. Airdrop Is Live For Everyone, Claim Instant 5000 CHT Tokens Worth Of $50 USDT. Join the Airdrop at the official website, CryptosHeadlinesToken.com Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.Source: Samantha LaDuc“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam BackBitcoin may rally despite recessionWhile most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHowever, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2029 fueled by ETF and gov’t demand — Bitwise execOther industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.” “While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19Source link
You may also like

The other side of Musk's trillion-dollar fortune: 85% cannot be sold
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem, and the answer is not on the pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up period ends.

The U.S. government prohibits foreigners from using Fable 5, Anthropic issues a rebuttal
The sudden removal of the two models has caused widespread shock in the tech industry and the AI community.

Citibank releases "2030 Asset Tokenization Market Outlook": 6 major trends may create a $8.2 trillion market
The tokenization of financial assets is moving from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, but this is a gradual evolution rather than a fierce revolution.

The trillion-dollar valuation test: Are the three major super IPOs a celebration for tech stocks or a nightmare for the crypto market?
Tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI have sparked a $35 trillion super IPO wave. The "suction effect" is not enough to crash the stock and crypto markets, but the test of high valuations is just beginning.

Morning Report | Digital Asset completes $355 million financing led by a16z Crypto; Meta completes operational separation from Manus
Overview of Important Market Events on June 11

a16z Crypto Partner: Cash flow is the moat
Most companies spend years creating network effects on traditional infrastructure. Crypto founders inherit them as starting conditions.

Cryptocurrency market makers collectively seek change as it becomes increasingly difficult to make money
There is more and more to do.

How TradeXYZ, xStocks, and Alpaca break down the SpaceX IPO into three different strategies
The value of tokenized products ultimately depends on whether the underlying structure is sound, rather than just the price displayed on the interface.

$75 billion in risk asset redistribution: How will SpaceX's IPO affect U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?
The SpaceX IPO is short-term "capital competition" for the cryptocurrency market, while in the medium to long term, it leans towards "narrative endorsement" for Bitcoin.

Why Is BlackRock Investing $5 Billion in the SpaceX IPO?
What is driving the massive demand for the SpaceX IPO, and why did BlackRock place a $5 billion order? Learn how the historic listing could impact SpaceX stock, Bitcoin, SPCX, and crypto markets.

Morning News | CME Group launches Nasdaq Cryptocurrency Index futures; Asset management giant Janus Henderson strategically invests in Ethena
Overview of Important Market Events on June 10

Bitcoin Layer 2 Network Botanix: Why Did We Choose to Dissolve?
The Bitcoin L2 star project Botanix announced a gradual shutdown, with the team admitting to facing severe challenges from the failure of its business model and the prevailing trends. Users are urged to withdraw all assets before July 9, 2026.

Why did Oracle deliver the strongest financial report in history, yet its stock price fell?
Oracle's revenue for fiscal year 2026 set a record, with AI cloud orders soaring to $638 billion, but massive capital expenditures on computing power led to negative free cash flow, causing a 5% drop in after-hours stock prices.

When the P2P illicit funds from ten years ago turned into 60,000 bitcoins
The largest Bitcoin money laundering case in the UK has new developments: 16,000 Chinese victims are pursuing 61,000 seized Bitcoins across borders, and the dispute over the applicability of UK and Chinese laws will directly determine whether the victims can share in the soaring profits.

Dialogue with OmenX Founder: Why does the prediction market need an evolution from "spot" to "derivatives"?
How to reconstruct the prediction market using leverage?

Galaxy in-depth report: Is Solana still worth paying attention to?
Solana did not fall behind during the bear market. Trading enthusiasm has waned, but the network is more stable, RWA and stablecoins are expanding, and the capital foundation is much thicker than in the previous cycle. The real question is: when the speculative tide recedes, can perpetuals, predicti...

Young people in South Korea make a "final effort" in the epic bull market
The South Koreans' average of two accounts for wildly gambling in the chip bull market reflects the survival anxiety and harsh reality of countless young people trying to break through class barriers behind the nationwide stock trading frenzy for wealth.

The pricing controversy of Trade.xyz exposes the fatal weakness of Pre-IPO perpetual contracts
SpaceX's equity update has sparked controversy over on-chain liquidations. Trade.xyz refuses to reset the SPCX pricing, and the lack of a Rebase mechanism in Perp DEX has led to a significant trust test for on-chain Pre-IPO assets.
The other side of Musk's trillion-dollar fortune: 85% cannot be sold
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem, and the answer is not on the pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up period ends.
The U.S. government prohibits foreigners from using Fable 5, Anthropic issues a rebuttal
The sudden removal of the two models has caused widespread shock in the tech industry and the AI community.
Citibank releases "2030 Asset Tokenization Market Outlook": 6 major trends may create a $8.2 trillion market
The tokenization of financial assets is moving from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, but this is a gradual evolution rather than a fierce revolution.
The trillion-dollar valuation test: Are the three major super IPOs a celebration for tech stocks or a nightmare for the crypto market?
Tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI have sparked a $35 trillion super IPO wave. The "suction effect" is not enough to crash the stock and crypto markets, but the test of high valuations is just beginning.
Morning Report | Digital Asset completes $355 million financing led by a16z Crypto; Meta completes operational separation from Manus
Overview of Important Market Events on June 11
a16z Crypto Partner: Cash flow is the moat
Most companies spend years creating network effects on traditional infrastructure. Crypto founders inherit them as starting conditions.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com

